Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.250030 2.385966 2.529630 2.693421 2.875796 3.073573 3.305566
2025-04-13 2.008604 2.188221 2.387087 2.625719 2.907215 3.232530 3.642746
2025-04-20 1.899358 2.109845 2.350972 2.651783 3.023172 3.475500 4.082895
2025-04-27 1.829772 2.064840 2.341774 2.698781 3.157416 3.743171 4.578060
2025-05-04 1.772478 2.026796 2.333604 2.740557 3.282224 4.005035 5.096271
2025-05-11 1.696424 1.959034 2.281557 2.718802 3.317216 4.144555 5.455474
2025-05-18 1.632262 1.901268 2.236893 2.700895 3.352284 4.283260 5.829248
2025-05-25 1.573763 1.846869 2.192320 2.678242 3.376185 4.404645 6.190520
2025-06-01 1.520781 1.796513 2.149569 2.653983 3.393799 4.515532 6.549124
2025-06-08 1.482913 1.763691 2.127766 2.656457 3.449282 4.689175 7.048171
2025-06-15 1.457186 1.745329 2.123904 2.683189 3.542148 4.932003 7.726275
2025-06-22 1.410833 1.697383 2.077043 2.644196 3.528954 4.993505 8.052361
2025-06-29 1.367033 1.651910 2.032487 2.607309 3.518193 5.061389 8.415969
2025-07-06 1.317513 1.597041 1.972681 2.544556 3.461134 5.040726 8.579630
2025-07-13 1.299328 1.584184 1.971240 2.569370 3.549099 5.294585 9.449776
2025-07-20 1.288436 1.580726 1.982640 2.613939 3.673202 5.633018 10.648221
2025-07-27 1.276650 1.575407 1.990829 2.653526 3.791639 5.977703 12.011244
2025-08-03 1.248363 1.545861 1.962317 2.632914 3.801141 6.098339 12.760712
2025-08-10 1.222668 1.519174 1.936967 2.615943 3.815648 6.231346 13.610657
2025-08-17 1.197111 1.491917 1.909757 2.594468 3.820004 6.342389 14.440704
2025-08-24 1.172432 1.465225 1.882459 2.571463 3.819648 6.442702 15.286943
2025-08-31 1.155587 1.449321 1.870812 2.573809 3.867570 6.662647 16.748436
2025-09-07 1.145385 1.442686 1.872887 2.599158 3.961949 7.010541 19.052335